UFC 300: 5 burning questions before UFC’s tricentennial celebration

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UFC 300 is the definition of a can’t-miss occasion.

That includes one of the stacked lineups within the promotion’s historical past, Saturday’s tricentennial celebration lives as much as the guarantees made by Dana White and the UFC brass. So with a card plagued by storylines and important bouts, what are 5 of the most important questions forward of UFC 300?

Be part of MMA Combating’s Shaun Al-Shatti, Alexander Okay. Lee, and Jed Meshew as they set the desk for a historic weekend.

Picture by MAURO PIMENTEL/AFP by way of Getty Photographs

1. Which of the 4 championship headliners has essentially the most to show?

Al-Shatti: Jamahal Hill is the one appropriate reply.

If ever there was a headliner with one thing to show, it’s the man who was plucked from the periphery and thrust straight right into a title battle because the UFC’s self-admitted fourth possibility, beat a 43-year-old champion with a proficiency in contrast to any seen from him prior, then promptly dropped the belt after tearing his Achilles in a pick-up basketball sport. Additional bonus factors if solely 9 months have handed because the damage and the person in query has repeatedly proven a whole incapability to reckon with even the slightest trace of cynicism in regards to the fortuitous path that short-cutted him to the entrance of the road for title rivalry.

To be clear, Hill very a lot might be him. He seemed sensational towards Glover Teixeira. If that leveled-up model from UFC 283 is solely who the ex-champ is now, he’s downside for anybody on this planet at 205 kilos. However simply the identical, it’s totally potential Hill is simply the fortunate soul who occurred to be in the best place on the proper time, who took benefit of a geriatric champion lower than six months faraway from one of the most grueling fights of all-time. In different phrases, it’s totally potential Hill isn’t too far faraway from being the periphery contender whose arm was damaged in lower than two minutes by Paul Craig.

Both state of affairs could be totally unsurprising, which is why UFC 300’s primary occasion reverse Alex Pereira is so rattling intriguing.

Lee: The one which’s least anticipated to win: Yan Xiaonan.

At the moment the most important underdog on the cardboard not named Cody Brundage, you’d suppose Yan was a late-notice substitute to problem Zhang Weili versus a legit contender who has clawed her approach to this chance. Understandably, it’s troublesome to shake the visible of Yan being completely dominated by Carla Esparza, however outdoors of that, Yan has not often seemed outclassed. If something, she’s proven in her previous two wins over Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern that she’s able to spoil Zhang’s reign.

Sure, this battle ought to be occurring in China, and it loses some luster being randomly thrown onto a loaded Las Vegas card by which it isn’t even one of many 5 most talked-about matchups. For me, that makes it much more essential for Yan to indicate that she’s the actual deal and wasn’t simply chosen as a result of she comes from the identical nation because the champ.

If Zhang simply dispatches of Yan as anticipated, then Yan turns into a footnote within the strawweight historical past books and a quantity to be tallied once we’re taking account of Zhang’s spectacular stats sometime. But when Yan pulls off the upset, she immediately crafts a brand new legacy for herself and joins the ranks of the UFC’s nice underdog champions.

Meshew: Since and Shaun and AK have already argued for Hill and Yan, that leaves me with both Pereira or Weili. However Pereira exists outdoors the conventional spectrum of MMA fighters. He’s a universe unto himself, able to doing issues in months that few others obtain in a lifetime. He has nothing to show as a result of he’s the proof. All issues bend to the desire of “Poatan.”

In order that leaves Weili, and whereas there are lots of on the market who suppose she has little to show, these individuals are simply easy farmers, individuals of the land, the frequent clay of the New West. You know, morons.

Weili is at present the highest pound-for-pound feminine fighter on this planet, however that’s extra a results of retirements, turmoil, and weak girls’s divisions than it’s a assertion of her greatness. Her two losses to Rose Namajunas dangle like a guillotine over her GOAT argument, and a loss to Yan would reduce the rope holding it. On prime of that, even her declare as the best Chinese language fighter in MMA historical past turns into suspect, as a result of Yan is her countrywoman.

Weili has essentially the most to lose this Saturday, and thus essentially the most to show.

2. Who’s preventing for the light-weight title after UFC 300?

Lee: The champion has a reputation … and it’s Islam Makhachev. However it might be Charles Oliveira once more!

At the same time as an admitted “Do Bronx” stan, I’ve waffled over whether or not we ever have to see Makhachev and Oliveira run it again. Their first battle was so definitively in Makhachev’s favor that it left zero doubt as to who one of the best fighter on this planet is at 155 kilos. On the very least, it felt like Oliveira needed to decide up a few wins to get again to Makhachev. We are able to assume the MMA gods agreed, as their UFC 294 rematch this previous October was struck down earlier than Oliveira might step foot on the flight to Abu Dhabi.

Lo and behold, with a post-championship drubbing of Beneil Dariush beneath his belt and a gathering with light-weight boogeyman Arman Tsarukyan forward of him, Oliveira is poised to string collectively the sort of back-to-back performances that might make his title battle candidacy plain.

Who is aware of? Makhachev might have Oliveira’s quantity and a second battle between the 2 might be one-sided, forgettable, or worst of all, pointless. Perhaps he can’t contact Makhachev. All I can say for certain is that if Oliveira stops the Tsarukyan hype prepare, he’s earned the best to seek out out.

Al-Shatti: Sadly for the various light-weight contenders competing on Saturday, the reply belongs off the board: It’s Dustin Poirier.

Blame this one on the UFC’s poor short-term planning greater than any kind of meritocratic logic, however these are simply the playing cards we’ve been dealt. Islam Makhachev seems dead-set on defending his belt someday in June, and each light-weight who has a greater declare than Poirier is already busy with UFC 300. Realistically, what are the probabilities any of Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Arman Tsarukyan, and even Max Holloway escape this massacre of a weekend wholesome sufficient to show round and battle once more in two months? Contemplating the proclivity for excessive violence all 4 of them share, that reply isn’t trying promising.

That leaves Poirier as the obvious leftover title to swoop in and fill the summer time spot. The timeline works out too effectively and the seeds have already been planted. The champ desires it. Makhachev’s staff desires it. Poirier desires it. And don’t act as if the UFC wouldn’t be thrilled to provide its greatest non-McGregor star within the division one final probability to win gold.

Except somebody in that Gaethje/Holloway/Oliveira/Tsarukyan quartet makes it unassailable with a 41-second knockout on Saturday, the following light-weight title shot is Poirier’s to lose.

Meshew: Poirier looks like the best reply, however take a second and dream with me.

All people is out right here speaking about how they need to see Max Holloway face Ilia Topuria (and if you happen to’re not saying that, you’re a type of farmers I used to be speaking about for the earlier subject), when as a substitute they need to be speaking about Holloway finally finishing his story.

As soon as upon a time, Holloway was going to step in on quick discover to battle Khabib Nurmagomedov for the light-weight title. Everybody was excited, despite the fact that it nearly actually would have gone poorly for Holloway. However some weight-cutting weirdness led to Holloway being disallowed from the battle, and as a substitute Al Iaquinta received the decision. Now, nearly six years to the day since that incident, Holloway has the prospect to stake his declare to a title shot towards Nurmagomedov’s personal chosen successor. That’s some storybook stuff.

If Holloway goes on the market on Saturday and does Max issues towards Justin Gaethje, I believe he jumps to the entrance of the light-weight title line. He’s a beloved fighter, there’s a narrative there, and it’s Max Freaking Holloway. After all he’d be all the way down to battle Islam Makhachev with solely two months of prep.

3. Who not in a championship battle at UFC 300 will likely be in a single subsequent?

Al-Shatti: Essentially the most boring reply (and doubtless most prophetic one) is Kayla Harrison, however for the sake of not spending the following 200 phrases waxing poetic about the disaster that is women’s bantamweight in 2024, let’s play out a distinct state of affairs as a substitute.

Y’all understand that Aljamain Sterling, the person who was being hailed as doubtlessly the best bantamweight of all-time simply eight months in the past, is preventing on Saturday’s undercard — and doing so in a model new weight class? Simply checking, as a result of there’s been completely zero buzz about it. Sterling’s prospects at 145 kilos have been debated since Merab Dvalishvili emerged as a possible man at bantamweight in 2021. Now, we’ll lastly get our reply!

Featherweight is in an odd place proper now with no clear-cut No. 1 contender. Alexander Volkanovski was simply badly knocked twice in a row and certain wants a break, Max Holloway is about to battle Justin Gaethje and will change into a official light-weight contender, and the UFC seemingly has zero curiosity in throwing Movsar Evloev any kind of bones. You’re telling me if essentially the most profitable bantamweight champion in UFC historical past goes on the market on Saturday and chokes out Calvin Kattar in three minutes, then cuts a imply promo about flying to Spain to problem Ilia Topuria, the powers that be wouldn’t have an interest?

Don’t rule it out, is all I’m saying.

Lee: I’m so, so sorry for what I’m about to talk into existence.

It’s Holly Holm.

(Geese.)

(Runs.)

I swear I’m not simply doing this for the memes. It’s true that Holm receiving half a dozen title photographs (give or take) has change into a working gag at this level, however this time there could also be no stopping UFC matchmakers from granting her another probability to change into champion once more. Let’s take a look at the information:

If Holm wins on Saturday, she spoils Kayla Harrison’s long-awaited debut and claims one other win over an Olympic judoka (a two-time gold medalist, this time) and a former PFL featherweight champion (illustrious!).
Since her submission loss to Mayra Bueno Silva was erased from historical past as a result of Bueno Silva being jacked up on that dastardly ADHD treatment, Holm will technically have gained 4 of her previous 5 fights with a victory Saturday. Within the girls’s 135-pound division, that’s roughly equal to successful 10 straight fights.
Holm has two convincing, if completely unwatchable wins over present champion Raquel Pennington.

Do the maths. Holm is preventing for that UFC title.

Meshew: Boo this man! Boo Alexander with all of your verve and vigor. There are 1,000,000 good solutions to this query and he selected the worst one. Boo, I say.

To offset AK’s horrible reply, I’ll select essentially the most enjoyable reply. (For what it’s value, Kayla Harrison is the proper reply.) It’s our man Jiri Prochazka!

Sure, Prochazka simply misplaced to Pereira in his final battle, however right here’s the factor: Who cares? Prochazka is likely one of the most enjoyable fighters in MMA, and after Saturday, the one different possibility for a lightweight heavyweight contender is Magomed Ankalaev. And regardless of Ankalaev clearly deserving a title shot, the UFC has little interest in placing this man close to a title.

If Jamahal Hill beats Pereira, that’s an easy title battle to make subsequent. If Pereira wins, we will nonetheless rock with Jiri as a result of f*** it, we ball! UFC 301 wants some assist, so Pereira and Jiri can simply battle one another subsequent month down in Rio. All issues are solved, most enjoyable is achieved.

4. Who on the prelims is almost definitely to steal the present?

Lee: Calvin Kattar, that is your second.

Kattar’s UFC run has been marked by unbelievable highs and disappointing lows, the latter sometimes occurring when he’s come up towards one of the best of the featherweight division. There’s no disgrace in dropping fights to Max Holloway, Zabit Magomedsharipov, and Josh Emmett, however these setbacks have put a ceiling on the 36-year-old’s profession. Or so we thought.

If Kattar is ever to attain a win over a fighter with UFC champion credentials, his greatest probability is that this Saturday when he takes on former bantamweight king Aljamain Sterling.

We don’t know the way Aljo goes to lookup a weight class. His athletic items and elite grappling might translate superbly to 145 and Kattar might be step one in a quick monitor to Ilia Topuria. Frankly, as Shaun so eloquently laid out, Sterling might be the reply to Query 3 if he submits Kattar in beneath a minute and performs his playing cards proper.

I don’t see that taking place although. Kattar’s takedown protection makes him a nightmare for Sterling, and if there’s one factor we realized about “Funk Grasp” in his most up-to-date battle, it’s that his standup adventures can finish in calamity. This has an inspiring 29-28 Kattar efficiency written throughout it.

Al-Shatti: People, the Jim Miller nostalgia hour is sort of upon us, and I’m very able to inject the great vibes that’ll accompany his third straight centennial showcase into my veins.

Let’s be actual, few of us thought we’d really get right here. I bear in mind sitting backstage at two completely different occasions — UFC 200 in 2016 and UFC 228 in 2018 — the place it palpably felt as if we could also be watching Miller’s retirement battle. In each instances, that was a Miller saddled with career-worst slumps and hosts of well being issues associated to his battle with Lyme illness. But every time, Miller improbably turned again the clock and scored fast finishes — first over Takanori Gomi, then over Alex White — to keep at bay the reaper for a short while longer.

When you would’ve requested both model of these Shauns whether or not Miller would nonetheless be keeping off youngbloods six years later whereas using a 4-1 sizzling streak, I by no means would’ve believed it. Doubly so if you happen to would’ve requested me whether or not his dream of changing into the one fighter to compete in any respect three UFC centennial occasions might really in the future come true.

However that’s why he’s Jim F****** Miller and I’m just a few dork with keyboard.

Meshew: I’ve spilled too much digital ink on my love for Deiveson Figueiredo and Cody Garbrandt to take action once more right here, simply know that it’s good and exquisite and all issues good on this harsh world. So with that being stated, I’m going WAY off the board and taking Kayla Harrison.

When Harrison efficiently makes 135 kilos (on the dot, to show some extent!), the intrigue stage for this battle will skyrocket. Then, come Saturday, Harrison will do the unimaginable and make a Holly Holm battle attention-grabbing, as a result of she’s going to obliterate the long run Corridor of Famer. At which level, Harrison will get on the mic, discuss her s***, name out soon-to-be-dead-woman Raquel Pennington, and lay the inspiration for an Amanda Nunes un-retirement superfight.

Harrison goes to make a giant splash on Saturday and revitalize the ladies’s bantamweight division when it’s at its most dire.

5. Will this card promote 1 million pay-per-views?

Lee: Beneath-delivering on primary occasion bulletins? No confirmed pay-per-view attracts? A poster that doesn’t function a single fighter on it and —p ardon my French — seems like pee-pee? Regardless of. There’s no stopping the machine proper now.

UFC 300 clears 1,000,000 buys straightforward, even when it doesn’t sniff the numbers of the most-watched occasions in firm historical past. There’s merely an excessive amount of funding from the fan base to overlook out on celebrating the massive three-double-zero. No one desires to be the geek on the water-cooler Monday morning telling their cool associates how they didn’t watch the occasion dwell. You’ll pay your $79.99 and prefer it!

My reply goes with my idea that, at this level, your common battle fan has to earmark sure occasions forward of time to price range their UFC viewing for the 12 months. UFC 300 has been on each fan’s radar since final 12 months, and except Uncle Dana trotted out a really odorous lineup, there’s no cause that this could exit anybody’s shortlist.

Folks love massive, spherical numbers and good-enough battle playing cards, so the UFC can as soon as once more simply sit again and watch the cash roll in.

Meshew: No, I really suppose it doesn’t.

One of many issues we’ve realized clearly over fight sports activities historical past is that stars drive pay-per-view consumption. UFC 100 bought 1.6 million pay-per-view with Brock Lesnar on the prime of it and Georges St-Pierre within the co-main. Then UFC 200 simply barely broke 1 million, with Lesnar in a featured bout and Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes because the headliner. That’s not a coincidence.

The UFC model is sufficient to set up a transparent ground for pay-per-views, however the ceiling is created by particular person stars, and for nearly as good as UFC 300 is, there’s no famous person on the cardboard, only a bunch of B+ gamers.

It’s a easy rubric, however heading into UFC 299, I had non-MMA associates asking in regards to the occasion and Sean O’Malley. Heading into this weekend, those self same associates are speaking about The Masters. The informal curiosity isn’t there with out massive names, so I believe we’re taking a look at an important occasion that also doesn’t clear the 1 million purchase quantity.

Al-Shatti: I hear every little thing Jed is saying, and my pal, you’re proper about all it.

However merely put: It doesn’t matter.

UFC 300 will clear 1 million pay-per-view buys for 3 easy causes. One, the game is a monstrously greater beast in contrast to what’s was for its final centennial celebration. Two, as AK advised, individuals love good, spherical numbers, and thus the novelty of UFC 300 (like UFC 200 earlier than it) will do sufficient of the heavy lifting. And three, by Saturday, the FOMO of not being a part of one thing particular will likely be in full have an effect on among the many informal sports activities viewers as soon as ESPN and Dana White give UFC 300 the all-out promotional blitz it’s about to obtain.

My guess: 1.1 million buys and one gloating ESPN press launch in my inbox inside the subsequent two weeks.

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