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The marketplace for free agent starters has been pretty busy this offseason, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Nola having come off the board on the prime of the market alongside a number of mid-level arms together with Kenta Maeda and Seth Lugo. Even the again finish of the market has been pretty energetic, with bounceback arms like Luis Severino and Lance Lynn discovering new houses on one-year offers earlier this winter. For all the excitement surrounding the free agent pitching market, nevertheless, one identify stands out as having not come up within the rumor mill in any respect so far within the winter: veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger.
It’s one thing of a shock that Clevinger’s market has concerned such little fanfare, because the righty was one of the vital dominant younger arms within the league with Cleveland within the late 2010’s. From 2017 to 2019, Clevinger dominated throughout 447 2/3 innings of labor with a 2.96 ERA that was a whopping 52% higher than league common by measure of ERA+. The righty struck out 28.3% of batters confronted towards a 9.1% stroll charge, good for a FIP of three.32. Amongst pitchers with not less than 400 innings of labor throughout these three seasons, Clevinger’s ERA ranked sixth within the majors behind a quintet of multi-time Cy Younger award winners: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber.
Dominant as Clevinger was, the right-hander was shipped from Cleveland to San Diego on the 2020 commerce deadline and wound up requiring Tommy John surgical procedure simply 4 begins into his tenure with the Padres. Rehab worn out his complete 2021 season, and the right-hander returned in 2022 to submit the worst season of his profession. In 117 1/3 innings of labor, Clevinger struggled to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.98 FIP, the primary time he posted a ERA+ beneath the league common since changing into a full-time starter in 2017.
Clevinger’s peripherals additionally suffered significantly. Although the right-hander entered the 2022 marketing campaign with a powerful 27.3% profession strikeout charge, he punched out simply 18.8% of batters confronted in his first yr again from surgical procedure. His batted ball metrics suffered as nicely: whereas he had generated grounders at a 40.3% clip throughout his peak years in Cleveland, that determine fell to only 35.2% with the Padres in 2022. The troublesome season led Clevinger to signal a one-year, $12MM take care of the White Sox final offseason, and the righty made good on that deal by handing over a stable efficiency final yr.
Clevinger’s time on the south aspect of Chicago received off to a tough begin as he struggled to a 4.84 ERA throughout his first seven begins, however the right-hander settled in from there to deliver his ERA down to only 3.88 by the point a wrist damage despatched him to the injured checklist in mid-June. That success carried over when Clevinger returned to motion six weeks later, and he entered the month of September with a sterling 2.45 ERA and stable 3.88 FIP in his final eleven begins. Clevinger largely cruised by means of the month of September till his closing look of the yr, the place he was torched for six runs in simply 1 2/3 innings of labor to go away him with a 3.77 ERA and 4.28 FIP on the season.
Whereas Clevinger flashed his earlier, dominant kind at varied factors all through the 2023 season and noticed his common fastball velocity tick again as much as 94.6, increased than his profession common, it appears unlikely the veteran righty would be capable of absolutely rediscover his earlier kind over a full season. In spite of everything, Clevinger’s groundball charge was at a career-worst 30.9% final season and whereas his strikeout charge did enhance over 2022 it nonetheless sat at simply 20%. That’s a far cry from the 33.9% clip Clevinger punched out batters at again in 2019 and fairly considerably beneath league common this previous yr.
Even so, the right-hander figures to be a high quality, innings consuming veteran who a membership can comfortably place within the middle-to-back of their rotation in 2024. Whereas Clevinger’s strikeout and groundball charges left one thing to be desired final yr, he flashed robust command with a stroll charge of simply 7.3% whereas sustaining hard-hit and barrel charges considerably higher than league common. Mixed along with his rediscovered velocity, it’s simple to see how the veteran right-hander might be an above common massive league starter subsequent season. If he can stay as much as that billing, the right-hander would possibly show to be a steal for the membership that finally indicators him this winter.
MLBTR projected Clevinger for a two-year, $26MM deal on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, the place he positioned thirtieth. That $13MM AAV can be one thing of a steal for a stable, mid-rotation arm this offseason given the expensive one-year offers arms like Frankie Montas ($16MM), and Jack Flaherty ($14MM) signed on the heels of seasons marred by damage and below efficiency. In the meantime, the likes of Lucas Giolito ($19.3MM AAV) and Michael Wacha ($16MM AAV) managed to surpass these marks on multi-year ensures. Whereas Giolito is three-and-a-half years youthful than Clevinger and Wacha has a stronger current observe report, it’s not arduous to think about a situation the place Clevinger posts comparable numbers to both pitcher in 2024 at a lower cost level.
The veteran righty has been one thing of a ghost on the rumor mill this offseason, with few if any golf equipment immediately linked to the right-hander. With that being mentioned, loads of groups are identified to be out there for beginning pitching this winter together with the Crimson Sox, Orioles, Angels, Giants, Yankees, and Cubs. Any of these groups may benefit from including Clevinger to their rotation combine, and he may show to be a sexy backup choice for groups that both can’t afford or fall quick within the bidding for top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, or who’re unwilling to satisfy the asking costs for potential commerce candidates like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.
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