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Final night time’s Braves/Mariners trade noticed Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, nevertheless it appears Gonzales’ stick with the Braves might be temporary. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to maintain Gonzales and anticipate to maneuver him in one other commerce. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Instances adds that Gonzales himself anticipated as a lot to occur after being knowledgeable he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not but clear if there’s an imminent commerce involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped round at current, nevertheless it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the identical.
Gonzales, 32 in February, is because of earn $12MM this season within the closing season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed again in 2020. The contract additionally accommodates a $15MM membership possibility for the 2025 season, which doesn’t include a buyout.
The soft-tossing Gonzales was a top quality member of the Seattle rotation from 2018-22, pitching 765 2/3 innings of three.94 ERA ball alongside the way in which. He grew to become fairly homer-prone in 2021, nonetheless, and noticed an already below-average strikeout charge dip to regarding ranges in 2022. Gonzales nonetheless posted a stable earned run common over these two seasons, however the residence run and strikeout tendencies had been famous purple flags.
Whereas the lefty managed to chop again on the homers he allowed in 2023, Gonzales was nonetheless tagged for a grim 5.22 ERA in 50 innings. His 15.8% strikeout charge was one of many lowest within the sport and the second-worst of his Mariners tenure. His 8.4% stroll charge was the worst of his profession. Three of his ten begins final yr had been really fairly serviceable, however Gonzales was clobbered for eight runs on two events and in addition served up 4 runs via 5 innings in his first outing of the yr. In the end, a left forearm pressure ended his season in late Could.
For the Braves, it’s wise to see them look to maneuver Gonzales elsewhere. He’d at greatest have been a fifth starter candidate in a crew that boasts Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder within the high 4 spots on the employees. His $12MM wage additionally pushed the Braves into the second tier of luxurious penalization.
The Associated Press reports that Seattle is about to ship $4.5MM to Atlanta to cowl a part of that $12MM sum — $12.25MM, if counting the $250K task bonus Gonzales acquired as a part of being traded. As such, the Braves would solely owe Gonzales about $7.75MM in precise wage, however he’s nonetheless price them a bit greater than $10MM as soon as factoring within the penalties the crew would’ve incurred beneath the aggressive stability tax.
That’s most likely greater than the Braves care to spend on a back-of-the-rotation candidate who’s not clearly a superior choice to in-house candidates like AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd, and it’d even be greater than Gonzales may anticipate to command on the open market after an injury-marred season. Presumably, if and when Gonzales modifications arms a second time, these cost-savings might be redirected to his new crew.
Whereas Gonzales maybe isn’t a match for a win-now Braves membership with a minimum of 4 more healthy and higher choices within the rotation forward of him, that doesn’t imply he can’t assist one other membership. There are a number of groups all through the league — Royals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Padres, Nationals to call a couple of — who’re merely in search of innings to spherical out the beginning employees. Gonzales’ 50 frames final yr don’t paint the image of an innings eater, however he’d averaged 30 begins and 174 frames over his previous 4 162-game seasons previous to 2023 (plus 11 begins and 69 2/3 innings within the pandemic-shortened 2020 marketing campaign). If Gonzales’ medicals present that the forearm pressure which ended his season is within the rearview mirror, one other membership would possibly really feel it may comfortably depend on him for 150ish innings this coming season. And if the Mariners are footing roughly a 3rd of the invoice no matter the place Gonzales lands, he may very well be seen as a comparatively inexpensive supply of these innings at a time when veteran free brokers of their late 30s (i.e. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson) are commanding $12-13MM for related roles.
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