Max Homa on the 2024 Masters.
Getty Photographs
Did you throw optimism to the aspect and belief the numbers? Did you’re taking Scottie Scheffler to win the Masters, regardless of the shortest odds we’ve seen from a favourite for the reason that days of Tiger Woods? Did you reap these rewards or are you kicking your self this week?
It’s at all times a bit tough for golf gamblers to wager on the favourite, significantly when the monetary return will get as paltry because it has gotten with Scottie Scheffler. The 27-year-old just won for the third time this yr after beginning the week within the 4-to-1 betting vary. Instantly, bookmakers marked him as a 5-to-1 favourite for subsequent yr’s Masters, and a 4.5-to-1 favourite for subsequent month’s PGA Championship. If Scheffler beats the opposite 143 gamers within the subject at Valhalla in Louisville, backers will solely obtain 4.5 instances the worth of their wager, or about half the standard payout for a favourite most weeks.
Though it appears onerous to think about anybody beating Scheffler proper now, current historical past tells us a couple of issues. 1. That successful two majors in a season is rattling onerous. Solely Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy have carried out it within the final 15 years. 2. Maybe extra importantly, current Masters contenders have gone on to win main championships later that yr. Don’t take our phrase for it. Take a look at the proof your self:
2019 Masters: Brooks Koepka misses out on playoff (with Tiger Woods, no much less) when his birdie putt on 18 wiggles away from the opening. He wins the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black a month later.
2020 Masters: performed in November, so the subsequent main was …
2021 Masters: Jon Rahm finishes T5 at Augusta Nationwide. He continues a torrid streak of type by ending T8 on the PGA Championship, after which wins the U.S. Open two months later at Torrey Pines.
2022 Masters: Cameron Smith pushes Scottie Scheffler all week lengthy, and rinses his desires of a inexperienced jacket in Rae’s Creek on Sunday. He finishes the 2022 Masters tied for sixth, however was the one participant pushing Scheffler. He leans on his putter all week lengthy, which turns into an indication of issues to come back as he shoots 64 on Sunday in St. Andrews to win the Open Championship in July.
2023 Masters: Brooks Koepka leads all through the week, making headlines for his play and in addition his actions on the course. When he finishes tied for second and runner-up to Rahm, he swears to by no means assume the way in which he did that week once more. A month later, Koepka outlasts the sphere at Oak Hill and wins the PGA Championship by two.
(Additionally receiving votes: Viktor Hovland, who was proper there with Koepka and Rahm on the Masters, and pushed Koepka to the brink on the PGA Championship. Hovland’s final prize was successful the FedEx Cup in August.)
With that development of prophetic performances in thoughts, what did the 2024 Masters inform us? It begins with the leaderboard. Those that have been in rivalry final week:
Ludvig Aberg. He’s enjoying nice — has he ever not been enjoying nice? — and pushed himself into rivalry on one of many stiffest exams we’ve ever seen at a Masters event. It felt like a U.S. Open at instances. Even an Open Championship within the wind. Maybe an indication of this coming summer season.
Max Homa. Homa had the group behind him at Augusta Nationwide, however he was nonetheless a beginner to the key championship highlight. He has now skilled the gauntlet of feelings that’s major-championship rivalry. Add it to the primary high 10 in a serious he skilled final summer season at Hoylake and his path feels extraordinarily linear. The subsequent cease could also be a trophy ceremony at Valhalla.
Collin Morikawa. Morikawa didn’t actually soar onto anybody’s Masters radar till he birdied the primary three holes on Saturday afternoon, pushing him into rivalry. Out of the blue, we have been all interested by this secret swing thought he had found out together with his caddie early within the week. As a result of he didn’t win, the swing thought continues to be thought-about a secret, but when it’s nonetheless carrying his sport in a month, he’s in all probability price a severe look.
Bryson DeChambeau. Given his excessive success fee together with his new caddie, Greg Bodine, and DeChambeau’s return to type these final eight months (he’s ranked thirteenth on this planet, in response to DataGolf) nobody could be shocked if BDC takes one other main championship someday this yr.
And for good measure, don’t overlook Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman might not have a PGA Tour victory to his identify, however he does have a really strong main championship document. He wasn’t precisely in rivalry this weekend, however he did slowly push himself right into a tie for third by the tip of the week. If it’ll occur for him, this could possibly be the yr.
So, how do you’re taking these names and handle turning a revenue from this Masters prophecy? Guess on all of them. They’ll all maintain loads of worth, doubtless within the vary of 16-to-1 to 30-to-1, on the yr’s remaining majors. You’ll be ok with your probabilities each week they tee it up. If all of them go major-less this yr, that’s oh-fer-15. Chalk it as much as dangerous luck and get began at subsequent yr’s Masters. If considered one of them claims the Wanamaker in a month, you’ll know who to thank.
