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    The Playbook Prophet
    Baseball

    Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

    theplaybookprophet.comBy theplaybookprophet.com19 March 2024Updated:19 March 2024No Comments16 Mins Read

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    The Mariners’ entrance workplace operated below tight payroll restrictions from possession in gentle of uncertainty relating to the crew’s tv contract this offseason. That didn’t cease “Dealer Jerry” Dipoto, the crew’s president of baseball operations, from aggressively overhauling the roster with a collection of trades coloured by financial implications. (This yr’s Mariners Evaluate may embrace the lengthiest “trades and waiver claims” part I’ve ever written in a decade of doing these critiques.)

    Main League Signings

    2024 spend: $17.3MM
    Whole spend: $29.3MM

    Choice Choices

    Trades and Waiver Claims

    Minor League Signings

    • Brian Anderson, Heath Hembree, Michael Chavis, Nick Solak, Cole Tucker, Cory Abbott, Kirby Snead, Joey Krehbiel, Casey Lawrence, Jason Vosler, Rangel Ravelo, Tyson Miller, Brett de Geus, Michael Papierski, Sean Poppen, Ty Buttrey, Trevor Kelley, Jordan Holloway

    Notable Losses

    • Teoscar Hernandez, Robbie Ray, Eugenio Suarez, Tom Murphy, Jarred Kelenic, Mike Ford, Marco Gonzales, Justin Topa, Jose Caballero, Isaiah Campbell, Prelander Berroa, Evan White, Penn Murfee (claimed by Braves), Cooper Hummel (claimed by Mets), Ryan Jensen (claimed by Marlins), Luis Torrens, Brian O’Keefe, Adam Oller, Easton McGee

    It grew to become clear pretty early within the offseason that regardless of the Mariners’ current success, together with the top of their two-decade playoff drought in 2022, payroll wouldn’t be rising a lot in 2024. Like so many golf equipment across the league, their offseason dealings have been coloured by uncertainty surrounding the crew’s tv rights. Whereas Seattle wasn’t planning to minimize payroll like many different golf equipment across the recreation, the Seattle Instances reported in early December that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, common supervisor Justin Hollander and the remainder of the entrance workplace acquired a smaller price range than anticipated from possession.

    That didn’t cease loads of hypothesis relating to Seattle-area native Blake Snell, however an enormous free agent splash like that by no means appeared doubtless given the entrance workplace’s obvious budgetary restrictions. As an alternative, Dipoto went with a well-known strategy: working totally on the commerce market. Even by his personal requirements, this was an offseason for the ages by way of wheeling and dealing. The Mariners made a staggering 12 trades over the course of their offseason.

    Maybe most exceptional about that development of trades isn’t the sheer quantity however fairly the truth that Seattle held onto its total crop of vaunted younger pitchers. Coming into the offseason, it appeared fairly doubtless that considered one of Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo or Emerson Hancock could possibly be dealt because the crew appeared to bolster different areas of the roster. Controllable beginning pitching is all the time in demand, and there was much less of it accessible this season than in years previous. The Mariners, going through wants at designated hitter, second base, third base and within the outfield, might very doubtless have moved a younger starter and stuffed a number of holes in a single fell swoop.

    That wasn’t meant to be, nonetheless. Dipoto would reveal that he unsurprisingly acquired appreciable curiosity in his younger pitchers however “never liked the way it looked” earlier than including that holding onto all the group as all the time “Plan A.”

    Even when the plan was to carry onto that group, modifications have been clearly wanted. Dipoto hinted at a attainable retooling early within the winter suggesting that he hoped add some extra contact-oriented bats to the roster within the wake of final yr’s prodigious strikeout totals. Whereas the Mariners achieved this to some extent, that want actually didn’t inform all of their offseason strikes, as most of the crew’s new acquisitions nonetheless strike out at alarming charges.

    Eugenio Suarez was the primary domino to fall on this regard. He’d been a stable contributor for the Mariners in every of the 2 prior seasons however struck out in 31% of his plate appearances alongside the best way and noticed his energy output dip in 2023. Suarez led the American League in strikeouts in each 2022 and 2023. A considerable dip in his defensive grades might properly trigger his worth to plummet, as he was successfully a league-average bat in ’23 (102 wRC+). His contact charge on pitches within the zone sat greater than 5 proportion factors shy of league-average, and on pitches off the plate, it was almost 13 proportion factors shy of the imply. Suarez is making simply sufficient contact and enjoying simply sharp sufficient protection to stay an above-average common, however his margin for error is thinning.

    In return for Suarez, the Mariners acquired one of many recreation’s hardest-throwing younger relievers, Carlos Vargas, and a backup catcher who strikes out at a staggering 35% clip: Seby Zavala. Whereas Zavala was acquired for his glove, not his bat, it was a bit curious to see the crew cite a want to enhance contact abilities after which purchase such a whiff-heavy backstop.  Cal Raleigh will work a bigger workload than most beginning catchers, however Zavala’s whiffs are nonetheless prodigious. For a Mariners membership that’s pretty much as good as any within the recreation — perhaps higher than every other — at maximizing bullpen efficiency, getting an influence arm like Vargas is especially intriguing. Nonetheless, the $12MM in price financial savings on this deal was certainly a motivating issue.

    Changing Suarez on the scorching nook can be fellow commerce pickup Luis Urias and holdover Josh Rojas, whom the M’s acquired final summer season in trade for Paul Sewald (a transfer that, looking back, maybe foreshadowed the present offseason’s payroll restrictions, when contemplating Sewald’s arbitration wage). Urias was a buy-low seize who posted a stable .244/.320/.446 slash in 2021-22 with the Brewers earlier than an injury-ruined ’23 season. In hindsight, the Mariners may remorse committing $5MM to him so early, as veteran infielders like Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario signed for a yr and $1.5MM apiece late in spring coaching, however their worth tags falling to such excessive ranges was typically unforeseeable.

    The Suarez commerce irked Mariners followers, because it appeared clearly financially motivated to no less than some extent, however the commerce of Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Marco Gonzales smacked much more closely of a wage dump. The M’s acquired a former second-rounder, Cole Phillips, who’d but to pitch professionally because of harm and a change-of-scenery former prospect in Jackson Kowar. Each have since undergone Tommy John surgical procedure.

    Kelenic was a logo of hope through the Mariners’ final rebuild — touted as a possible outfield cornerstone alongside present face of the franchise Julio Rodriguez. Issues merely haven’t panned out that manner, nonetheless. Kelenic has appeared flummoxed by MLB pitching on a repeated foundation, notably fellow lefties. He had a scorching begin in 2023 however light immensely earlier than breaking his foot when he kicked a water cooler following a strikeout in a key state of affairs. The Mariners shed $24.25MM of payroll in that deal and acquired little in return. However dealing Kelenic and his 31.7% strikeout charge did mesh with Dipoto’s aim of bettering the crew’s contact.

    Between the departures of Suarez, Kelenic and free agent Teoscar Hernandez (who signed with the Dodgers on a one-year deal), the M’s bid adieu to a trio who mixed for 1788 plate appearances and every struck out in 31% of their plate appearances (or extra). In buying and selling Suarez, Kelenic, Gonzales and White, the Mariners additionally trimmed almost $37MM off the long-term payroll.

    These weren’t the one cost-driven offers of the winter, nonetheless. Dipoto shipped the ultimate three seasons of Robbie Ray’s $115MM contract to the Giants in a commerce bringing again previous buddy Mitch Haniger and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners know simply how productive Haniger will be when at his finest however are additionally loads aware of his susceptibility to accidents and strikeouts. As with Garver, he’s not a panacea for the crew’s contact woes, however Haniger has by no means punched out at a clip larger than 2019’s 28.6%. He was at 28.4% in 2023 whereas battling by an indirect pressure, a again pressure and one other fluky harm: a damaged arm sustained when he was hit by a pitch.

    Outdoors of final yr, Haniger has been an above-average offensive participant in each full season of his profession. He’ll in all probability by no means return to his peak 2017-18 kind, however even 2022’s .246/.308/.429 slash was 13% higher than common, per wRC+. The Mariners would doubtless be wonderful with that stage of output, and something further could be a bonus.

    The Haniger/DeSclafani/Ray commerce additionally set the stage for one of many Mariners’ greatest acquisitions of the offseason. It took a number of months to come back collectively, however the M’s and Twins lastly made good on what was a transparent on-paper match from a commerce companion standpoint. Seattle acquired switch-hitting second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins, sending again DeSclafani to offer some pitching depth, righty Justin Topa to beef up the Minnesota bullpen, and a pair of prospects: Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Gonzalez is especially well-regarded, touchdown on a handful of top-100 lists this winter. Bowen joined the again finish of the Twins’ high 30 prospects. The Mariners included the $6MM of wage aid the Giants offered for DeSclafani and kicked in one other $2MM, leaving the Twins on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM wage.

    The Mariners weakened their bullpen, thinned out their rotation depth a bit and traded considered one of their finest outfield prospects to get the commerce completed. From a roster building standpoint, nonetheless, it labored for each events. Seattle’s pitching is a energy, whereas second base was a obtrusive want. Mariners second basemen hit .205/.294/.313 final season. Solely 4 groups (Giants, Brewers, Rockies, White Sox) noticed their second basemen flip in a worse wRC+ mark than Seattle’s collective 75.

    Going from that dearth of manufacturing to Polanco, who’s slashed .267/.337/.458 over his previous 2362 plate appearances within the majors (117 wRC+) is a large improve. Like Haniger, he’s had some current harm points, however Polanco is a balanced switch-hitter who’s signed for simply $10.5MM in 2024 with a $12MM membership possibility for the 2025 season. Knee and hamstring accidents restricted him to 80 video games final yr, however he’s a clearly above-average hitter and succesful defender at second base. His 18.2% profession strikeout charge ought to assist the Mariners’ contact targets, although it’s value noting he did whiff in a career-high 25.7% of his plate appearances final yr.

    Sending Topa to Minnesota in that commerce on the heels of his 2023 breakout — 69 innings, 23 holds, 2.61 ERA, 21.9% strikeout charge, 6.5% stroll charge, 56.7% grounder charge — may have served as a catalyst for one of many Mariners’ most uncharacteristic strikes in current reminiscence. Seattle has thrived at turning minor league signees, waiver pickups and different little-noticed acquisitions into impression relievers. Topa himself is an instance of it. They’ve grow to be so outstanding at doing in order that the crew has even coined the “Steckenrider Bucket” time period — a nod to them signing Drew Steckenrider to a minor league pact a number of years again and having fun with a dominant season of setup work from the journeyman righty.

    Their February acquisition of White Sox nearer Gregory Santos, nonetheless, marked the uncommon occasion by which the Mariners paid a steep worth in a commerce for a reliever. It’s simple sufficient to see why Santos appealed to them. He pitched 66 1/3 innings of three.39 ERA ball in entrance of a horrible protection, putting out 22.8% of his opponents towards a 5.9% stroll charge. Santos saved the ball on the bottom at a 52.5% clip, averaged a blistering 98.8 mph on his heater, induced swinging strikes (13.4%) and chases off the plate (34.9%) at excessive clips, and commonly averted harmful contact (34.9% hard-hit charge, 1% barrel charge). Past that, he’s controllable for 5 extra years and never arbitration-eligible till after the 2025 season.

    Nonetheless, sending not solely prospects Zach DeLoach and Prelander Berroa, but in addition a Aggressive Steadiness draft decide that’ll slot in at 69th total this summer season, marked a divergence from the Mariners’ typical strategies. Maybe the M’s grew weary of mining for hidden gems on an annual foundation. Maybe they merely (and fairly understandably) beloved Santos’ arm and have been enamored of the thought of pairing him with Andres Munoz and Matt Brash in the long run. Regardless of the rationale, it offers the Mariners a possible three-headed bullpen monster for the ages. Each Brash and Santos are banged up and can start the season on the injured listing, however neither is believed to be going through a monthslong absence. Sooner or later within the not-too-distant future, that trio can be locking down leads for supervisor Scott Servais. It’s a enjoyable group on which to dream.

    Polanco’s acquisition additionally helped replenish a few of the depth the Mariners misplaced when buying and selling Jose Caballero to the Rays in trade for slugger Luke Raley. The 27-year-old Caballero debuted and usurped Kolten Wong because the beginning second baseman, although he light fairly a bit after a scorching begin. Flipping him for Raley provides a substantial inflow of left-handed energy to the Seattle lineup — Raley homered 19 instances in simply 406 plate appearances and posted a stout .241 ISO — however does additionally set the membership again by way of contact abilities. Raley fanned at a 31.5% charge in 2023. He hasn’t hit lefties in any respect in his temporary MLB profession (.206/.257/.324), so he’ll doubtless be platooned with Dylan Moore or function a bench bat, if the membership prefers to offer hot-hitting Dominic Canzone the primary crack on the bigger portion of the left subject job. Both manner, Raley’s out of choices, so he’ll be on the roster.

    We’re deep into this look again on the Seattle offseason however haven’t even but touched on the crew’s free agent dealings. That’s each a testomony to the astonishing quantity of trades and likewise a mirrored image of a reasonably modest offseason by way of free agent exercise. Nevertheless, the Mariners did shed a very good chunk of cash within the trades of Suarez, Kelenic/White/Gonzales, and Ray — as a lot as $43MM total. That cash has since been largely reinvested into the roster.

    To switch Hernandez, Seattle signed Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal. Garver comes together with his personal strikeout considerations, however to not the extent of the gamers he’ll successfully be changing. He’s fanned in 25.6% of his profession plate appearances (24.2% over the previous two seasons in Texas) and, extra importantly, has quietly been one of many best-hitting catchers within the recreation when wholesome.

    Seattle will use Garver as the first DH, although he might doubtlessly go well with up for a number of video games behind the plate relying on the well being of Raleigh and Zavala. This was a bat-driven transfer, nonetheless. Over the previous three seasons, Garver has hit .249/.347/.479 (128 wRC+) with 42 homers in 802 plate appearances. He’s a profession .272/.377/.509 hitter towards lefties. He’s been injured usually, doesn’t run properly and followers greater than the common hitter, so there are some considerations. However the Mariners will hope common DH at-bats preserve him within the lineup extra often — and in the event that they’re proper, he has greater than sufficient bat to fill that position.

    The aforementioned accidents to Santos, Brash and Kowar in camp proved an excessive amount of even for a deep Seattle bullpen to resist with out making any noise. As these three relievers have been banged up, the Mariners turned again to the free agent market and signed Ryne Stanek — among the finest remaining relievers — to a one-year, $4MM deal. He’s coming off a down season by way of ERA and strikeout charge, however Stanek posted the primary sub-10% stroll charge of his profession in 2023 and is one more power-armed reliever with a fastball that sits north of 98 mph. Every of Munoz, Brash and Santos high 98 mph on common, as properly.

    Seattle’s solely different free agent pickup, Austin Voth, is extra consistent with their conventional bullpen acquisitions. He inked a $1.3MM deal and can open the season as a swingman. The 31-year-old as soon as appeared like a possible long-term rotation possibility with the Nationals however by no means discovered consistency in D.C. He was designated for project in 2022, thrived down the stretch after touchdown in Baltimore (3.04 ERA in 22 appearances, together with 17 begins), however couldn’t replicate that success in 2023 (5.19 ERA in 34 2/3 innings). The Mariners can be his third membership, and if they will get Voth proper, he’ll be controllable by the 2025 season through arbitration.

    The Mariners overhauled their lineup, basically swapping out Hernandez, Suarez, Kelenic, Caballero, Wong, Mike Ford, Tom Murphy and AJ Pollock for a gaggle together with Polanco, Haniger, Garver, Raley, Urias and Zavala. It’s not an ideal lineup nonetheless, the core of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford and Ty France — who’ll ideally have a bounceback season — was all the time going to be the engine driving a contending Mariners membership. The brand new group may not signify as dramatic a discount in strikeouts because the entrance workplace hoped, however this assortment of hitters ought to certainly put the ball in play extra often.

    And for all that turnover, the Mariners made it work with out parting with any of their vaunted younger beginning pitchers or radically rising payroll. Buying and selling Miller or Woo for a bat, then signing Snell and Matt Chapman may need been a extra simple technique of working, however these kinds of expenditures have been by no means within the playing cards, given possession’s price range.

    The Mariners saved their core in tact, changed a very good little bit of any misplaced manufacturing from the departures of Suarez and Hernandez, and did so whereas working inside a reasonably tight set of monetary restrictions. They will not be AL West favorites, however this group ought to be aggressive once more and the lineup seems stable, even when it’s a wildly totally different group than they trotted out a yr in the past. The most important acquisitions — Polanco, Garver, Santos — are all signed/managed by no less than 2025 as properly, making this whirlwind offseason one which’ll impression them past the present marketing campaign.


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