Red Sox Extend Defensive Phenom Ceddanne Rafaela

A month after signing beginning pitcher Brayan Bello to a six-year extension, the Boston Purple Sox are at it once more, this time extending rookie heart fielder Ceddanne Rafaela on an eight-year deal value $50 million. If Rafaela sticks within the majors lengthy sufficient this season to earn a yr of service time, this extension will delay his free agent eligibility for 2 years; both approach, he’ll be paid a assured wage by the 2031 season.

How you’re feeling about Rafaela comes down to simply what you concentrate on his protection. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin rated Rafaela as the one prospect on THE BOARD last year with a 70 current worth for protection and the one one with a future worth of 80. They have been hardly alone of their reward for his glove, both, as different retailers equivalent to Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline additionally gave complimentary critiques to his leathercraft.

Whereas prospect writers have sometimes missed on the eventual defensive efficiency of prospects – Gregory Polanco involves thoughts – Rafaela definitely hasn’t proven something in his restricted time within the majors that refutes these views. Measuring minor league protection, versus viewing it, is fraught with apparent peril, however the defensive estimates that ZiPS makes use of for minor leaguers additionally love his glove. ZiPS makes use of a Complete Zone-esque measure from Gameday hit areas, much like Sean Smith’s methodology from nearly 15 years ago. Sure, we’d desire to have one thing like OAA or DRS and even UZR for minor leaguers publicly out there, however we don’t, so we’ve got to typically be extra conservative about conclusions drawn from the info. However for what it’s value, these estimates, which I name zDEF, had Rafaela as an elite defensive heart fielder within the minors in 2023.

By the way, zDEF had Rafaela at +3 as a shortstop complete for his minor league profession, so if the circumstances warranted it, it wouldn’t essentially be the craziest factor to see him comply with within the footsteps of one other former Purple Sox prospect, Mookie Betts, and transfer again to shortstop sooner or later, although that definitely will not be why Boston signed Rafaela long run.

Let’s run the eight-year ZiPS for Rafaela.

All informed, ZiPS would fortunately provide him an eight-year, $67 million — $17 million greater than what the Purple Sox gave him.

One factor to take into accounts: As long as Rafaela’s glove is great, he doesn’t must take an enormous offensive step ahead to be value his contract. ZiPS has Rafaela hitting for a skosh extra energy, sufficient to get his OPS+ and wRC+ into the 100 vary throughout his peak years, however not enough to make him a famous person. Because of this, his projections preserve him within the solidly above-average territory – he’ll doubtless have an All-Star look or two throughout an up yr – however comfortably beneath star standing. These offensive numbers make him barely higher offensively than the inevitable comp given for him, Jackie Bradley Jr., who put up a 93 OPS+ over elements of eight seasons in Boston and was a couple of runs higher defensively than Rafaela’s projections. Suffice it to say, if ZiPS’s pure conservatism with minor league defensive numbers finally ends up lowballing Rafaela, he’d be a steal at this worth and put up WAR numbers within the vary of Kevin Kiermaier’s finest years.

As an offensive participant, Rafaela stays a piece in progress. In 9 video games this season coming into Tuesday, he’s hitting .233/.286/.400 with two triples and an 85 wRC+. He’s really gotten higher at making contact, going from a 69% contact price at Triple-A final yr to 73% within the majors thus far. Admittedly, this enchancment has are available in a small pattern — he’s made simply 124 massive league plate appearances mixed between his 2023 late-season debut (72.1% contact in 89 PA) and this yr (76.3% in his 35 PA) — however it’s nonetheless encouraging.

That mentioned, he stays far too aggressive on the plate, particularly when you think about his particular profile as a hitter. In contrast to his teammate Rafael Devers, who additionally swings at a fairly excessive price of pitches out of the zone, Rafaela doesn’t hit the ball significantly onerous; Devers has energy to spare, so although he doesn’t make as a lot onerous contact on pitches out of the zone — his common exit velocity drops to 85.5 mph, down from 94.9 mph on in-zone pitches — he can nonetheless do injury. Rafaela doesn’t have that luxurious. As an alternative, he’s a speedster (rating twenty eighth in dash pace this season amongst 202 certified gamers) who performs his residence video games at Fenway Park, certainly one of baseball’s finest parks for batting common. He must be incentivized to have a extra contact-oriented sport than most different batters. His contact abilities seem like bettering, however he received’t get essentially the most out of his sport if he retains chasing pitches that’s he unlikely to hit.

The Betts commerce and the departure of Xander Bogaerts are nonetheless, rightfully, ache factors for Boston followers. However since then, the Purple Sox appear to be making a greater effort to retain the gamers they develop, first with the Devers extension in January 2023 and now with Bello and Rafaela. Finally, successful is the one factor that can make issues higher in Boston. Holding Rafaela on the town must be an essential step towards that.