The Mets Scoop up a New DH

The common season begins in a couple of week, which implies there isn’t a lot time left to signal free brokers and combine them into the group earlier than video games begin to rely. In some circumstances, in actual fact, there’s no time; Blake Snell gained’t be prepared for Opening Day, so any pitchers who haven’t signed but certainly gained’t be both. However there’s one participant who may most likely fall off the bed and right into a beginning lineup subsequent Thursday, and the Mets simply signed him:

Breaking: JD Martinez to Mets. $12M

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 22, 2024

J.D. Martinez is offense in a can. He performs DH, so he doesn’t must be taught who he’s throwing to or catching from. He’s effectively traveled, so this isn’t his first rodeo. And the Mets may use some offense, which implies this signing traces up on many axes. At one 12 months and $12 million, the contract is true. There’s only one query: How good will he be?

Should you take heed to our projections, Martinez is squarely on the draw back of his profession. ZiPS and Steamer undertaking him for a 106 and 105 wRC+, respectively, with a ton of strikeouts offsetting sturdy energy numbers. All DHs throughout baseball racked up a collective 106 wRC+ final 12 months. It’s not precisely substitute stage, but it surely doesn’t appear notably exhausting to search out somebody able to placing up that stage of offense.

A counterpoint, although: Martinez simply completed a season the place he hit .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+. The 12 months earlier than that, he was at 119, and 126 the 12 months earlier than that. Certain, he’s not the fearsome, MVP-caliber hitter he was in 2017 and 2018, however there’s loads of room to be worse than that and nonetheless nice. His statline didn’t look notably fluky; he posted a .301 ISO, meaningfully greater than his profession mark, however he earned that manufacturing with a ton of exhausting contact. He posted the second-highest barrel price of his profession, the very best hard-hit price, and put the ball within the air steadily to benefit from all that thunder.

There are lots of elements to research, however on the finish of the day, all of it boils down to at least one query: Ought to we belief 2023, or the projections of 2024? If the Mets get some semblance of what the Dodgers acquired, this can be a whale of a deal. In the event that they get one thing nearer to league common, the entire package deal is so much much less thrilling. Let’s see if we are able to decide up on any patterns that counsel one or the opposite.

The massive fear with Martinez’s sport is that he strikes out so much. His 31.1% mark in 2023 represented a brand new profession excessive, however he’s all the time been a high-risk, high-reward hitter. Practically each contact frequency and swing resolution metric declined from the prior 12 months:

That didn’t actually hurt Martinez final 12 months. It looks as if his plan was fairly simple. Swing exhausting, since you would possibly hit it, roughly. You possibly can reside with much more misses for those who downright wallop the ball if you join, and that’s simply what Martinez did. These strikeouts have by no means sunk his offense; he has a profession 132 wRC+ with a profession 24.7% strikeout price. Projection methods assume he’ll strike out fairly a bit subsequent 12 months — due to course they do — however that’s by no means stopped him from crushing.

Are Martinez’s lack of walks final 12 months behind his lackluster projections? They’ve by no means been an enormous a part of his sport within the first place, however 2023 marked one of many lowest stroll charges of his decade-long offensive renaissance. No sweat from both Steamer or ZiPS there, although; they assume he’ll rebound towards profession norms.

No, the place they assume Martinez will fall brief is what occurs after he hits the ball. I’m speaking 10 fewer homers in 70 further plate appearances, an epic energy outage. I believe the reason being fairly easy; 2023 was an outlier for him when it got here particularly to energy. He’s all the time run a excessive BABIP. He’s all the time hit lots of doubles, notably in Boston. However he hit homers on 6.9% of his plate appearances final 12 months, the second-highest price of his profession, behind solely his torrid 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 167 wRC+). You most likely can’t wager on that persevering with.

In different phrases, the projections are based mostly on a grain of fact, as they all the time are. Should you’re making an attempt to determine how this signing will fail, it’s the overall passage of time mixed with regression. Martinez will maintain putting out so much, as a result of these are typically sticky. He’ll hit fewer bombs, as a result of these are extra variable. He’ll hit for a bit much less BABIP, too, and naturally he’s getting older, so sprinkle in a little bit of decline in all places, and presto change-o, you’ve turned Martinez into merely a good hitter as a substitute of an ideal one.

I don’t actually purchase that interpretation of the info, although. Projection methods clearly do an ideal job within the mixture, however I believe they’re lacking the arrow of causality right here. I don’t assume Martinez struck out extra, sustainably, and occurred to hit the ball exhausting, unsustainably. I believe that the 2 are linked, and that he took an attack-heavy strategy understanding the inherent tradeoffs. I believe it’s affordable to undertaking extra energy this 12 months, although most likely not final 12 months’s Baseball Savant-incinerating crimson flames:

Cut up the distinction between our projections and final season, and also you get roughly what I’m anticipating. Bunches of homers, bunches of strikeouts, and loads of exhausting contact for singles and doubles combined in. The Mets may use that type of offense to anchor their lineup, which we expect will find yourself in the course of the pack in run scoring regardless of some wonderful hitters on the prime of the lineup.

The plate appearances that Martinez will absorb wouldn’t have been nice, to say the least. There would’ve been lots of Mark Vientos in there, and maybe a heaping serving to of Tyrone Taylor. Francisco Alvarez was all the time going to get his justifiable share of DH at-bats when he’s not catching, and perhaps Martinez cuts down on these, however there are limits to how usually it’s best to play your catcher at DH from a relaxation perspective. Brandon Nimmo was the opposite probably beneficiary of DH time. He’s an ideal hitter, however who would cowl for him within the outfield? This can be a significant offensive improve, is my level.

Does this signing make the Mets playoff favorites? To not me. I believe they’re nonetheless a bit bit brief, largely as a result of their pitching employees is in some way dangerous when it comes to each expertise and availability. However I like this signing so much anyway. It’s the type of transfer that David Stearns steadily made in Milwaukee, and it normally paid off there. Should you construct your group in such a manner that it could add gamers who fetch lower than anticipated in free company, then exit and add these guys opportunistically, you find yourself with an excellent roster, although not all the time in the best way you anticipated.

I by no means would have linked Martinez to the Mets at first of this offseason. They appeared extra more likely to dip their toes into the pitching market, which is strictly what they did, signing Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. They traded for Adrian Houser and Taylor when the Brewers wished to shed 40-man spots. In doing all of that, the Mets saved some cash, which meant that when Martinez was accessible for lower than initially forecast, that they had the room so as to add, and the group composition to make it work.

I don’t assume this deal will change the course of the 2024 season. I don’t assume that his posting a 105 or 115 wRC+ will transfer mountains. I do assume, nonetheless, that this transfer makes a ton of sense. It’s not a standalone try to repair the group. It’s not a blockbuster contract. It’s simply part of a bigger philosophy of group building: Getting good gamers on affordable offers tends to repay. And one additional advantage to throw in on the finish of this checklist, since I’ve already made my case that it’s an excellent signing: Everybody appears to like working with Martinez. He’s a pupil of hitting who would make Ted Williams proud. Should you can justify the deal earlier than including that, that’s fairly the throw-in.